FNB Property Barometer shows National Credit Act and interest rates biting the market
The release of the second quarter results of FNB's Property Barometer, a survey of
market conditions as perceived by the estate agent industry, shows a sharp
resumption of weakening in market conditions since the first quarter.
In the graph below, the second quarter data point shows deterioration from a
first quarter level of 6.7 to 5.8. There was also a clear decline in that
portion of respondents reporting "very active" and "active" conditions, and an
increase in the portion reporting "stable" and "not very active" conditions.
This decline reflects a resumption of the market slowdown, after a mini-surge
during the latter part of 2006. It is possible that the mild improvement late
last year was partly due to significant transfer duty relief in 2006. On top of
that, we did see economic growth holding up well in 2006, and the combination of
solid economic growth and transfer duty relief may have been enough to offset
the negative impact of rising interest rates for a while. That
mini-strengthening in 2006 was also seen in the figures for new mortgage loans
granted, whose growth accelerated through much of 2006 and early-2007.
But alas, all good things come to an end, and the resumption of the weakening
trend is much in line with expectation.
In addition, FNB did a further survey in July, in order to ascertain the
strength in the market following the implementation of the National Credit Act (NCA).
It is clear that there has been significant further weakening between the second
quarter survey and the July one. From a 5.8 reading in the second quarter, a
further drop to 4.96 was recorded, and the "very active" and "active" responses
became insignificant in July. This is the weakest reading since the inception of
the Barometer back in 2003.
How does one interpret this reading? Well, firstly, we must be careful to
apportion all of the blame for the July reading on the NCA implementation. It
must be remembered that some of the negative impacts of last year's four 50
basis point interest rate hikes will still be feeding into the market with a
lag. Secondly, we saw a fifth 50 basis point interest rate hike in June,
coinciding with NCA implementation, and besides the further deterioration in
affordability that this rate hike caused, it is also possible that it raised the
"jitters" regarding future interest rate movements. Thirdly, we have witnessed
signs of economic growth slowdown during the initial stages of 2007. This,
coupled with a mild rise in inflation, will exert some downward pressure on
household disposable income growth. Finally, we had no significant transfer duty
or personal tax relief in this year's National Budget.
Nevertheless, there are widespread reports from banks regarding an NCA-induced
slowdown in mortgage loan approvals, so it is realistic to believe that the NCA
has played a significant role in the slowdown in the July barometer reading.
Indeed, the survey respondents also indicate a strong impact from the NCA. 43%
of respondents claim that applicants are struggling to qualify for home loans.
In addition, respondents are claiming that the lower end of the market is harder
hit by the NCA, with 67% claiming the NCA to be a significant hurdle. Those
operating in the upper end of the market suggest that buyers are more immune to
the NCA because of a significantly greater proportion of cash buyers in this
segment.
Again, a caution regarding the interpretation of this result should be issued.
This does not imply that the lower end of the market will perform more poorly
than the higher end. To the contrary, it is likely that the lower end will
continue to outperform the higher end in the near term. One must remember that
there are other non-NCA forces that militate in favour of the lower-priced end,
and which may continue to outweigh the negative impact of the NCA.
A widespread affordability issue has affected the market in recent years. As
general house price levels have risen, so a portion of demand has shifted
towards the lower end, and in the more recent stages of the property boom the
lower end has outperformed the high end as a result. Although there are more
cash buyers at the upper end, it is plausible that the affordability issue
continues to shift some demand downwards to the cheaper end, and this could
compensate for those at the lower end who struggle to qualify for loans.
The Barometer also reports a further drop-off in the proportion of first time
buyers in the market at the post-NCA July survey. After remaining unchanged at
20% in the second quarter survey, the percentage dropped to 16% in the July
survey.
This is believed to be the combination of the further June interest rate hike
and the NCA implementation. First time buyers are overwhelmingly credit buyers,
and more often than not they are not at the high end. One can thus assume
significant sensitivity to the NCA
Proportion of first time buyers
The Barometer also reports foreign investors remaining at approximately 5% of
the market on a nationwide basis. Given the debate regarding foreign ownership,
and government noises regarding possible restriction of foreign buying, it is
significant that this percentage is not declining.
However, given a decline in overall activity levels, a constant 5% foreign buyer
proportion would suggest a possible decline in foreign buyer numbers in the
local market. There could be numerous reasons for this. Firstly, there exists
the possibility that some could be holding back in order to see what government
does in the way of foreign ownership restrictions. Secondly, these investors
could be losing interest due to deteriorating performance in the local property
market. Finally, it could also be the weakening of many of their own property
markets that is causing property in general as an asset class to lose its shine
in their eyes.
Also important to remember, when drawing conclusions as to the extent of foreign
ownership, is that if foreign buying is 5% of all buying, this does not mean
that foreign ownership is 5% of all ownership. It is possible that foreign
ownership could still be significantly less than 5%, given the historically low
levels of foreign interest in SA.
A further indication of the market slowdown comes in the form of a survey of how
many properties are sold at below the asking price. This figure has been on a
broad rising trend since early-2004 where it was near to 30%. The post-NCA July
survey recorded a figure of 75% of homes being sold below asking price. This
reflects a further increase on the Second Quarter figure.
Sold at less than asking price
The next survey component, namely the average length of time that a house is on
the market, has also been on a broad rising trend since 2004, reaching a level
10 weeks by the second quarter of this year. This figure remained unchanged at
10 weeks in the July survey. However, it could be that the second quarter and
post-NCA surveys were too close together to make a difference to this variable.
The Barometer also points to further weakening in the buy-to-let market. In the
early stages of the Barometer's history, in early-2004, the proportion of buyers
that bought to let was near 30%. In the July survey, this percentage has reached
12%, down on the second quarter figure just above 15%. This is seen as the
result of deteriorating capital growth as well as a rental market that, until
last year at least, had been on a weakening trend in terms of rental inflation.
With rental inflation believed to have been below capital growth for some years,
the market is believed to have experienced significant yield compression during
the boom years, having a negative impact on the attractiveness of buying to let.
Proportion of properties bought-to-let
Regarding the NCA, noteworthy is that there is a widespread belief amongst the
industry professionals surveyed that the NCA process has slowed the speed at
which loan deals are approved. However, they are optimistic that many of the
stumbling blocks related to NCA implementation will be resolved in the coming
months. Initial concerns regarding the NCA manifested themselves in a drop in
the second quarter reading for the percentage of respondents expecting either
unchanged or improved activity levels in the following quarter. In the July
survey, however, this number of respondents rose to 77% of the survey.
Positive outlook for the next quarter
OUTLOOK
Those were the key barometer results, but how do I see the market going forward?
Well, despite agents expecting an improvement in activity levels in the third
quarter, following a significant drop, I do not believe that we are yet at the
bottom of the short term property cycle. This, I expect, will only arrive in the
first half of 2008.
What has to happen first? Obviously, key to the recovery in the market is for
demand to once again get ahead relative to supply.
A deterioration in the interest rate environment post-2003 (first in the form of
moving from aggressive rate cutting to broadly sideways interest rates and then
from sideways to rate hiking in 2006) has hampered demand growth. Currently,
real disposable income growth is believed to be hampered by the combination of
slowing economic growth and higher inflation, also constraining housing demand
growth mildly.
However, the expectation is that things will turn for the better in 2008. No
interest rate cuts are expected until 2009, but after one further 50 basis point
interest rate hike in the current cycle, the peak could be reached. A shift in
the interest rate trend from upwards to sideways represents an improvement in
the interest rate environment. Simultaneously, inflation is expected to subside
mildly in 2008 after a small surge has created a high base, thereby contributing
positively to real disposable income growth.
On the global economic front, an economic growth recovery is anticipated from
2008, after a weakening during 2006 and the current year. The US interest rate
cycle is believed to have peaked, while the sub-prime housing market credit
issues are expected to have largely played themselves out by next year.
Improvements on the global economic front, a peaking in SA's own interest rate
cycle, and a mild decline in domestic inflation, are expected to contribute to
slightly stronger local economic growth in 2008, accompanied by stronger real
disposable income growth.
The slowdown in economic growth during 2007 is not expected to be severe,
perhaps to 4.8% from 5% in 2006. This implies positive net job creation and
ongoing strong growth in middle class numbers and purchasing power. All the
time, therefore, demand for housing for primary residential purposes is growing
steadily. Is the supply of new stock keeping up? I'm not sure that it is, given
that over the past 2 years (2005 and 2006) there has been a mild decline in new
residential stock delivered to the market.
Over the next few years, the pace of construction activity should by all reports
be frantic as 2010 approaches. The residential property building sector will
have to compete for increasingly scarce skills and materials, not to mention
services such as electricity supply to new developments. All of this is expected
to constrain the further growth in new supply of residential units.
My thinking, therefore, is that as a result of the combination of steady demand
growth and constrained supply growth, demand (for both rental and
"owner-occupied" stock) will once again catch up with supply, resulting in
acceleration in both rental and house price inflation. Which acceleration is
expected first? Rental inflation acceleration is expected to precede the
recovery of the (currently slowing) house price inflation rate.
Gross rental yields, i.e. rental income expressed as a percentage of the value
of house value, have been generally declining in recent years, with house price
inflation outstripping rental inflation. But you will have noticed in a previous
graph that buy-to-let activity relative to total market activity has been
declining, thus curbing growth in supply of rental stock. Trafalgar's rental
indices have shown vague promise of a rental recovery as demand starts closing
in on supply, but the picture is still very mediocre, and a recovering Joburg
rental market seems to be the main driver of the national average. More
convincing signs of a rental market recovery are expected by 2008, with the NCA
implementation playing a role in driving some additional households into the
rental market due to their falling short of affordability criteria when applying
for home loans.
A house price inflation recovery is expected to follow shortly after the rental
inflation acceleration, in 2008, and the combination of rising rental and
capital growth is expected to once again improve the attractiveness of the
market for buy-to-let investors.
And if high building cost inflation accompanying the various constraints on
delivery of new housing stock is not enough to raise optimism, increasing land
scarcity around major urban areas should. Land with the necessary infrastructure
and services is scarce, and local government ability to deliver this
infrastructure is also limited at present. So not only should high building cost
inflation drive strong returns on existing property, but so too should the land
component.
Therefore, although the estate agents surveyed in the FNB Property Barometer
point to an expected improvement in market conditions in the third quarter, I am
sceptical whether it will happen that soon. But in 2008, with economic growth
expected to recover mildly, interest rates to flatten out, and increasing
constraints on the supply side, I believe that the time will be ripe for the
barometer to once again show a strengthening trend, as activity levels pick up
in response to the renewed attractiveness of residential property as an
investment.